The race to find Earth-like planets in their habitable zones, and the prospects for alpha Centauri
No-one should have any doubt about what is one of the most exciting and challenging projects in modern astronomy of the early 21st century. It is the race to find Earth-mass planets lying in their habitable zones. It is easy to understand why this topic has captured the imagination of astronomers, the media and the general public. First, because there exists a widely held belief amongst astronomers that nothing in the universe is unique. Wherever we look, the same types of objects are generally found in many places, although some objects are certainly rare.
Secondly, it is because we recognize that the Earth provides a special environment that has favoured the development of life. That special environment includes having a rocky surface, a protective atmosphere, a temperature suitable for liquid water and hence favourable for life forms. In addition, our planet is at the right distance of one astronomical unit from a solar type star to receive the required amount of radiation in the form of heat and light. Certainly quite a few conditions have to be satisfied, but solar-type stars are ubiquitous in our Galaxy and it is now clear that Jupiter-mass planets are quite common too. Probably Earth-mass planets are also common, but detecting them at present is right on the limits of current technology.
A huge race between many research teams is now going on to find the first truly Earth-mass planet in its habitable zone. As it happens, three different techniques of finding Earth-mass planets have it in their grasp to deliver this amazing prize within the next year or two. It is extraordinary that, in spite of huge technological challenges, all three look like coming to fruition at about the same time.
The three techniques are the highly successful radial-velocity method, whereby we detect a planet by the tiny reflex wobble imparted to the parent star, by using the periodic Doppler shifts of lines in the stellar spectrum. This was the technique used for 51 Pegasi in 1995 by Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz and by many others for several hundred stars over the last decade and a half. At present the lowest mass planet found is a 2.0 Earth-mass object (lower mass limit) orbiting the M dwarf star Gliese 581 in an orbit of just 0.03 AU, so it is much closer than the habitable zone. Another planet orbiting the same star is 7 Earth masses at 0.22 AU, so it may be in the habitable zone.
Secondly, the transit method, first employed by David Charbonneau and others for HD209458 in 2000, detects a planet by the periodic drop in the star’s light level as the planet transits across its face. The Kepler satellite, now in orbit (since March 2009), is designed to detect these tiny drops of order 10-4 in light level caused by Earth-sized planets transiting in front of solar-type stars. In addition, the French Corot satellite, launched in December 2006, also can find planets by the transit method, and indeed seven have been found, mainly Juipter-sized objects. One however has a mass of 4.8 Earth masses.
Finally gravitational microlensing has the capability of finding Earth-mass planets if they are orbiting lens stars. The method has the advantage that it is good at detecting Earth-mass planets in the habitable zone, provided a near perfect alignment of source and lens stars occurs. In addition, only for microlensing can an instantaneous snapshot be taken revealing both planet position (projected onto the sky plane) and planet mass, whereas the Doppler and transit methods require one or ideally several orbits to be completed before a planet can be confirmed. Already planets with masses of 3.3 and 5.0 Earth masses have been found orbiting low mass stars at respectively 2.1 and 0.62 AU (projected distance from parent star).
At Mt John Observatory in New Zealand we have already made a huge investment in the microlensing method with the Japanese-NZ MOA project. MOA astronomers have contributed to the discovery of all nine extrasolar planets found by microlensing since the first was found in 2003.
Now we have started a new programme to search for Earth-mass planets orbiting our nearest star, alpha Centauri – in this case using the Hercules spectrograph and the Doppler method. The programme is a joint one with Stuart Barnes (Anglo-Australian Observatory) and Mike Endl (University of Texas, Austin). The problem is that an Earth-mass planet in the habitable zone imparts a velocity wobble of only about 10 cm/s to either alpha Cen A or its companion alpha Cen B – actually about 10 per cent more wobble for star B because it is 20 per cent less massive.

We are encouraged to undertake these key observations for several reasons. First, theoretical studies by Javiera Guedes et al. in 2008 showed that Earth-mass planets are likely to have formed in the alpha Centauri system. In their simulations, planets of mass 1 to 2 Earth masses always form in the habitable zone around alpha Cen B, no matter what the initial conditions. What’s more, Paul Holman and Matt Wiegert found that stable orbits are possible in this binary provided they are within about 3 A.U. of either star. The orbits are almost certain to be coplanar with the binary star orbit, which has a semi-major axis of 23 A.U. What is more, the binary orbit is tilted at 79 degrees to the line of sight, so any putative planetary orbits are likely to be at that same favourable angle for detecting Doppler shifts (if the angle is small, the orbits would be close to face on and no Doppler shifts are then detectable).
The McLellan 1-m telescope at Mt John is a small telescope with a powerful spectrograph. It is being used for the alpha Centauri project. (Photo by Fraser Gunn).
The Hercules spectrograph at Mt John is a fibre-fed vacuum échelle spectrograph which, with an iodine cell in the light path, can deliver about 2.5 m/s precision in its velocities, and possibly even better in the near future. Our modelling shows that some 30,000 spectra of either alpha Cen A or B over three years can rather readily detect an Earth-mass planet in its habitable zone, about 1.2 AU from alpha Cen A or 0.75 AU from alpha Cen B. We also know from past observations that alpha Centauri does not contain any planets as massive as Jupiter. Such planets would easily have been detectable by the Doppler method during the last decade if they existed.
Fortunately the exposure times are short for very high signal-to-noise spectra – about a minute for star A and a few minutes for B. We already have acquired several thousand spectra of each target and the aim is to intensify the campaign over the next few years. There is a strong optimism that finding an Earth-mass planet orbiting either of our two nearest stars is a realistic target within our grasp.
alpha and beta Centauri at lower culmination from Tekapo, still 15 degrees above the southern horizon (photo by Fraser Gunn)
One other fortunate circumstance makes this the ideal programme for Mt John Observatory. Being the world’s southernmost optical observatory (at 44ºS), we are able to observe alpha Centauri for 12 months of the year, even in November and December. The star is circumpolar and passes the southern horizon at lower culmination at an altitude of some 15 degrees, when it is still readily observable. No other observatory can see alpha Centauri all year, and a periodic gap in the data every year can be disastrous when trying to detect periodic signals which may well have around a one-year period. We therefore plan to press ahead with the alpha Centauri campaign during 2010 and 2011, with the hope of making the historic discovery of an Earth-like analogue orbiting our nearest star, at just 4.3 light years distance.
Possibly in the present century an unmanned probe could be sent to alpha Centauri and explore any planet that might be detected there. The journey is likely to take at least half a century, but it is not an impossible dream, even though far beyond the realm of current technology. That’s all the more reason to search for planets now by the Doppler method, as a prelude to any later space mission.
(written 15 October 2009)



October 22nd, 2009 at 12:50 am
John, I’m reading Charles Sheffield’s “Cold As Ice”. The novel takes place about 150 years from now and early in the story one of the characters is using a space based network of 60,000 independent scopes. They bring the array to focus on a Sol type star in M31 and are able to get enough resolution to see individual cities on another planet. I’m a space geek, but not knowledgeable enough to know if this is technically possible. What are your thoughts?
October 22nd, 2009 at 3:50 am
The idea is scientifically plausible; if one has enough light-collecting power and a large baseline for optical interferometry, then in principle extremely high optical resolution is possible. The technical problems of putting 60,000 telescopes into orbit and combining the beams in an interferometer are surely insuperable even in 150 years from now, as would also be the financial cost.
December 1st, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Excellent news! I’ll write this up on my Centauri Dreams site tomorrow. Well done, John!
December 9th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Hi. I’m an astronomy enthusiast living in Toronto(approx 44 degrees N. Latitude) and
I’d like to wish you the best of luck with your exoplanet search. What a good idea to
make use of Alpha Centauri’s circumpolar track at your location. With two dedicated searches everybody must feel some competitive pressure but it’s good for science if
results from one team can be confirmed by the other. No doubt Dr.Fischer must appreciate your advantage of not losing Alpha Centauri for what, 8 or 9 weeks each year even though her site has some what better observing conditions. Perhaps it all equals out over the long term.
Also it’s reassuring that this second search is being carried out.I hope the funding for it is adequate and stable. Dr.Fischer describes in her interview with SEED magazine the difficulties she has had obtaining long term funding for her project and it’s not clear at this time how long she will be able to continue observing Alpha Centauri.
A question or two if I may,if you were using the same equipment to observe a 5th magnitude star how long would the exposure times be to obtain a good spectra?
Would this type of earth size planet hunt even be practical on the 5th magnitude K-Dwarf star Sigma Draconis(circumpolar at my latitude) using similar instruments as Mt.John or is it too dim?
Again I’d like to wish you the best of luck with your efforts Professor Hearnshaw
and if we are all really fortunate any planets found in the HZ of Alpha Centauri A or B
will transit their suns as well allowing the James Webb space telescope to get a look at
the atmospheric chemical composition. Well a man can hope.
With regards.
Michael Dodds.
December 28th, 2009 at 8:48 am
I’m a director of a small inbound travel organiser and what to use the
alpha and beta Centauri at lower culmination from Tekapo, still 15 degrees above the southern horizon (photo by Fraser Gunn) photo to promote going to Mt John for our clients.
Are you able to put be in touch with Fraser Gunn so that I can get his permission to put this on our website.
Regards
David